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What awaits Russian logistics in the near future?
In the chamber of Commerce of the Russian Federation held a meeting of the Committee on logistics, which discussed the development of the market of transport and logistics services (TLU) in the recession of the Russian economy. The condition of the market and its prospects until 2017, said the head of the Subcommittee on monitoring TLC, the main analyst of Department of consulting of RBC Lyudmila Simonov. According to her, in 2015 it is expected to reduce the volume of domestic and international traffic, reduction of investments in infrastructure projects. This will lead to profound changes in the market.
Lyudmila Simonova argues that sanctions have been added to the recession of the Russian economy, so business should reorient commodity flows from West to East. Such measures will enhance the role of integrated logistics in foreign economic activity. Specialized organizations will be able to feel the increased demand for their services, as independent transition will be quite difficult.
In the first nine months of 2014, the figures were good, but in October-November there was a decline in traffic, which amounted to 10 %. Until the last moment, the sphere of warehousing services and Express delivery maintained high rates of development. However, due to the fall of the ruble, purchases in foreign currency became unprofitable. Internet Commerce, which provides the main Express delivery load, dropped sharply from 30% to 10%. Thus, the market volume last year amounted to about $ 80 billion. This year, the industry expects a slight growth of 1-2 %, if not to take into account the level of inflation. And if you take it into account, all the indicators go into minus.
The most difficult situation awaits the sphere of road transport
The crisis in the global economy is superimposed on the difficult situation in Russia's logistics. Lyudmila Simonova notes that the growth rate has decreased significantly in developing countries. This is due to commodity prices, changes in the tax system and structural adjustment. She noted that the current problems are not only related to Russia. The world economy is in a difficult situation, and until 2020 it expects a turbulent state. This situation is caused by the transition to a new technological cycle.
Today there is a flow of capital and the formation of financial and economic megablocks of countries. Until 2020, we should not expect major improvements in both the Russian and global economies.
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